Estimation of Air Traffic Accident Cost in Nigeria

This project proposes an accident cost estimation model in the aviation industry in Nigeria. The model takes into consideration the probability of accidents and the cost of the potential consequences. Potential consequences of accidents are classified as human severity, property damage, and economic implications. The three classes of accidents identified in this study were fatal, serious, and minor. The cost of each class of accident was developed in terms of the probability of accident occurrence class i (Pai), human severity cost of the accident (Hi), degree of severity (fi), service life of the aircraft (L), interest rate (t), usage life of aircraft (T), acquisition cost of damaged aircraft (N), period of idleness of aircraft due to accident (θi ), flight rate (FR), economic implication cost (Ec), and value of damaged goods (Qi). Historical data was collected from the Federal Aviation Authority with the aid of a questionnaire and personal interviews on the occurrence and consequences of accidents between the periods of 1983 to 2007. The data collected was statically analyzed and applied to the model. The average cost of each class of accident (fatal, serious, and minor) was estimated as: fatal, N1,453,616,775.00; serious, N2,547,388.80; and minor, N511,928.00. (